28th July 2014, 12:54 PM #1
- Join Date
- Jul 2008
- Balham, Gateway to the South (coast)
Long range weather forecasts, waste of time? Discuss.
I'm off to Tiree this weekend for 3 weeks so I've been watching the long-range GFS forecast charts on http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess= (I know I shouldn't but I can't help it) . They update every 4 hours and each update is completely different. Looks good for next week at the moment.
Why do they bother?Fractured pelvis healed, fit as I'm going to get now!
28th July 2014, 01:23 PM #2It is what it is.
30th July 2014, 10:32 AM #3
While I agree weather reporting is getting ever better the risk is to go further out and feel that this also is going to be as accurate.
Is it worth paying for some of the web sites that have long range forecasts - I dont think so - I think the only way to have realistic expectations of how volatile the forecast could be - or in fact wrong. IE am i going to sail or not usually means is it going to be =>f4. Any more then you can sail, you will get away with sub 6m sails, the difficulty is the difference between sub 100l boards and sub 6m sails and larger boards and sails where there is more room for error and disappointment.
For me I have a big dilemma heading to Cornwall at the end of the week for 2 weeks - the forecasts are showing 1-2 days out of 14 where we are in f4 territory. So I am taking a beginners board for the kids and can only fit 1 other board and 2 sails on the car. So do i risk taking the 92l with 5.3 and 4.7 for the potential 1 day of great sailing or 120l with 7.8 and 6.2 for free-ride fun on more potential occasions and kick myself when there are more than 1-2 days which are too windy for it.
No forecast is going to be able to give me confidence that either decision is going to be right - or better than another. It is a purely a personal decision - frustrating if I get it wrong but I have had so many times where I have got it wrong I am now used to it!
30th July 2014, 11:15 AM #4
30th July 2014, 11:42 AM #5
30th July 2014, 12:38 PM #6
To be honest i am veering towards the 120 and big sails - I have written off this year so guess a pootle around on Sithians while the kids do the same will be fine....
That said I am happy to take one for the team, and as such an unexpected series of low pressure systems will hit Cornwall between 1st and 18th of August - you have been warned.
1st August 2014, 06:40 AM #7
If you get your weather predictions from newspapers, this is what you find: